63. The Advantage
We found the addresses of five private casinos on the internet. We checked out of the hostel and chose a casino on a side street of the Ring for our first try. All casinos in Vienna required a 3,000-euro deposit or credit.
Everybody chipped in what they carried in their pockets. It turned out that 3,000 euros was just about everything we had among us. When it was Pearl’s turn to give us her last 500 euros, she hesitated.
“Don’t you think we should keep something for food and accommodation in case you lose all the money?”
“We’re not going to lose,” Rachel said. “We’re going to use basic strategy.” “What is basic strategy?” Pearl asked.
“Basic strategy is a system where you use the odds of each dealer–player card combination when you make your bets,” Martin said.
“But the casino always has the advantage, right?” Pearl asked.
“The casino has the advantage by default, yes,” Rachel said. “But a player who applies basic strategy andcounts cards can bring the advantage round.”
“Are there really specific odds for each situation at the table?” Pearl asked.
“Yes, there are,” Martin said. “Let’s say, the table rules require the dealer to hit on a soft 17, that is an ace and some other card, then the player should hit on a hard 17 and a soft 18, 19, and 20, unless …”
“But how do you know that?”
“It’s basic frequentist statistics,” I said.
“It means that you play thousands of rounds of blackjack and record the outcomes of each decision to stay, hit, split and double,” Rachel explained.
“How can you remember all these outcomes?” Pearl said.
“It’s not so hard,” I said.
“Probably not when you can memorize a 1,000-page guidebook,” Pearl conceded.
We decided that Martin and Rachel would go first and get the lay of the land. Pearl and I stayed back and waited in one of Vienna’s famous coffeehouses nearby. I was nervous. I preferred being close to Martin when he took risks. I couldn’t eat and I couldn’t sit still. Since he had taken the beating on Hazard Road, I felt guilt and fear when he was in a dangerous situation, although the danger of the casino was not more than a vague feeling. I thought it unlikely that the FPA would kidnap him when they already had Jeremy, but no casino liked card counters and I saw Robert De Niro in Casino before my inner eye order a henchman to smash a blackjack player’s hands.
“Nick, stop fidgeting!” Pearl said, digging into a big portion of apple strudel with cream.
“I’m worried about Martin.”
I played with Yoda in my pocket. For the first time, I truly understood Julian’s pain. His work on the Rh had brought suffering to the people he loved. And now, I was on the same path – only on a grander scale.
The door opened and Martin and Rachel stormed in, unharmed and effervescent.
“It was fabulous! Martin was fabulous!” Rachel said.
“How much did you win?”
“15.” Martin beamed.
“15?!” Pearl said in disbelief. She looked at her watch. “In just two hours?”
“We have to ramp it up,” I said, sharing her enthusiasm only half-heartedly.
“I know, Nick. Or split and go to different casinos,” Martin said.
“That could work,” I said. Martin and Rachel ordered something to eat and told me the house rules. They were surprisingly good.
“Six-deck shoe. Hand shuffling.”
“Penetration?”
“60%.”
“What is penetration?” Pearl asked.
“It’s the number of cards the house plays before they change the shoe,” Rachel said.
“A higher number is better, right?” Pearl asked.
“Yes.”
“What happens if they find you counting?” Pearl said.
“They are going to throw us out,” Rachel said.
“That’s it?” Pearl asked.
“You can get barred,” Martin said.
“I thought it is illegal,” Pearl said.
“No. How can it be? Using your mind to count cards does not change the game and can therefore not be cheating.”
“What if I used a machine?” Pearl asked.
“Oh, that would definitely be cheating,” I said.
“And illegal,” Martin said.
“Wait a minute,” Martin said. “Remember the front desk at Claridge’s in London?”
I nodded.
“What if the FPA has put tabs on the casinos, too?” Martin asked.
“We can only hope to fly under their radar,” I said. I didn’t have the heart to tell him that I was certain the FPA had surveillance out in the casinos for us. If they hadn’t before, they would certainly have after breaking into our room and stealing our money. My only hope was that the casinos weren’t overly interested in cooperating and that we were therefore able to remain inconspicuous.
“Then we must split and go to different casinos,” Rachel said.
“And leave with small wins,” Martin said.
“What’s the minimum bet?” I asked. I needed to calculate how long we were going to need to win 150-thousand euros if we played only for small wins.”
“100 euros.”
Pearl gasped.
“That is good, Pearl.” I said. “Higher minimums mean good rules. That is the way casinos are run.”
“But 100-euros per bet!”
“It’s also faster with higher minimums,” Rachel said.
“I know, it’s just so risky,” Pearl said.
“No, it’s not,” Rachel protested, a little annoyed. “The odds are well known. Applying basic strategy brings the house edge down to about a 1%. Counting takes the advantage further down and actually turns the tables on the casino to a 1% edge for the player.”
Pearl didn’t look convinced.
“How come you all know so much about blackjack?”
“It’s statistics 101,” Rachel said. “Blackjack and baseball are some of the best researched fields in statistics.”
“Payout on blackjack?” I asked because I wanted to get started.
“Blackjack pays 3:2, dealer stands on soft 17,” Martin continued.
“Very good,” I said. “Splitting and doubling?”
“Split aces more than once, double down after splits allowed and on any two cards three times.”
“Ideal,” I said and explained the betting choices for the most common hands.
Pearl listened closely.
“It seems like a lot to know, to keep in mind and to remember – not counting the card counting,” Pearl said.
“They don’t count the actual cards, Pearl,” Rachel said. “They use a system called Hi-Lo where the cards are assigned a value from -1 to 1. So, it’s basically just adding and subtracting ones.”
“But how do you keep track of the cards and apply these rules at the same time?” Pearl asked.
“It’s not that hard,” Martin said. “Nick is going to explain the basics and you leave the counting to him.”
“Then there should stand nothing between us and those 150-thousand dollars,” Pearl finally said with a smile.
Copyright by Ines Strohschein, Berlin 2023